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Home Value Report San Diego Zip Codes
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Poway Single Family Homes Market Conditions - January 2009
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Poway single family home sales increased by 33% in January versus January of last year; however, the sales level is still lower than the prior 3 years. The chart shows the sales performance by home size, but because of the low level of the sales numbers the trends showing are difficult to see. While the sales performance is better than Carmel Valley is showing, Poway is underperforming San Diego County in terms of home sales. Pending sale activity in January was double the sold homes indicating a rebound in sales in February. Over 75% of the pending activity growth occurred in the under 1600 sq ft – below $375,000 – market segment while the higher end of the market is fairly stagnant. The sales profile we see in Poway is fairly consistent with what is occurring throughout San Diego County. The market softness is occurring as we move into the jumbo loan price ranges. Due to the large increase in pending activity the overall months supply for Poway is at 4 months. However, due to the pending distribution the months supply ranges from 2 months at the lower end of the market and rises to 23 months at the higher end of the market, as this chart shows. The higher months supply would seem to indicate that those market segments will face further pressure to reduce prices. Since I look at home prices by home size, it is very difficult to develop price trends on a monthly basis due to the small size of the data. This chart will give you some idea of what price changes look like although the accuracy is a bit suspect. Poway has not seen large foreclosure activity which has protected the slide in home prices somewhat. Currently in Poway there are 74 Notice of Defaults, 43 scheduled Auctions and 40 bank owned properties, see map. Of the 157 total NOD, NTS and bank owned properties 64% are in the less than 1600 sq ft home size market segment, which is where prices have declines the most. There is very low months supply – 2 months – in the under 1900 sq ft homes which should indicate a slowing of the price declines and some price stability in the near future. The higher end of the market with double digit months supply will see further pressure to reduce prices. As long as the jumbo loan market remains in its current state the demand for those homes priced in the jumbo price range will face soft demand and have pressure to reduce prices. |
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