Poway detached home sales continue to lag the sales increases being experienced throughout the county. First quarter Poway sales declined by 20% from last the same period last year when the county experienced sales growth of over 50%, this trend continued into April with Poway sales declining 30% while the county had a 20% sales growth. Sales were either flat or down for all home sizes in April. However, April had significant growth in pending sales – 20% increase versus March - indicating a sales improvement in May. The pending increase was particularly significant in the higher priced Poway homes which had been stagnant for the past few months. The buyer profile is quite different from the county overall; cash buyers made up 9% of April sales vs 25% countywide indicating fewer investors in the Poway market, conventional loans were 65% of sales vs 41% countywide and FHA/VA were 22% of Poway sales vs 34% countywide. At the end of April Poway had an overall 4 months supply of inventory for sale all but one home size was in the 2 to 4 month supply region. This would indicate that there should be pressure for prices to increase. We are seeing this trend of a shortage of supply to meet the demand to purchase homes in many areas within San Diego County. We will see a drop in inventory next month primarily due to the new Contingent listing classification, they have now moved listings like short sales with “accepted offers waiting for lender approval” from Active to the new classification, which to me makes sense. Poway has seen price declines across all home sizes in the first quarter of 2009 versus the same period in the last 5 years. This chart shows that prices are below the peak prices in 2005 and 2006 depending on home size. With the current inventory position I would expect to see prices stabilize and begin trend up somewhat. The buyer profile would seem to indicate that more financially secure buyers are buying Poway homes which should mean that if the market changes for the worse there will be less negative fallout in the future. |