Sales of Downtown San Diego condos increased by 14% over August and selling activity – pending and contingent – increased by 30%. One item that could have affected August sales was the increase in interest rates in June and July, which started back down in August. Two downtown districts – Columbia and East Village – made up 55% of downtown condo sales, a pattern that has held up for the past few months. The September selling activity shows the same mix with Columbia and East Village maintaining their 55% market share. Foreclosed properties represent 20% of September sales while short sales are 22% of sales. The inventory composition of distress sales is 4% foreclosures and 15% short sales. Throughout San Diego we are seeing the distress component of sales being much larger than distress in inventory. Since the market is very much price driven and distress properties sell for less than non-distress properties this is not surprising. Inventory in September declined by 6% from August and months supply declined to 4.6 months. Only the Marina District is showing excessive months supply with 10 months which should favor buyers. All other districts are in the price neutral 4 to 6 months supply range. Looking at year over year price changes downtown only Little Italy is showing higher prices than last year; however, this September sold condos were about 20% larger than last year explaining the higher price. When sold prices are put in $/sq ft terms all districts downtown had price declines from last year. Month to month price changes this year have been sporadic with no clear trend line other than in September all district sales prices are below the sold prices at the beginning of the year except for East Village where prices are up 12%. Condo sales throughout San Diego are showing clear price increase trends while downtown is not. One explanation could be the higher HOA fees downtown which do impact affordability on the monthly payment. While selling activity has remained high since April, except for August, there have been two major factors impacting the conversion of pending to sold: 1) a 13% fall out of pending, 2) the extended period for short sales to close escrow. I would expect to see sales continue in the 60 to 75 sales per month range moving forward and to see the same pricing patterns we have seen all year. |