Carmel Valley real estate homes sales in March and the first quarter were the highest for both condos and detached homes since 2007. March sales were up 60% for detached homes and condo sales were up 90% from March 2009. The sales growth for detached homes in the first quarter were broad based with all but the over 4,000 sq ft homes showing gains in sales. Condos had a very similar sales pattern with the over 1,600 sq ft condos showing sales declines.

In March the pending sales activity was slightly higher than the closed sales indicating that Carmel Valley should maintain the March sales levels in April. Since January Carmel Valley inventory has increased significantly, primarily for detached homes. The detached home inventory has risen from 100 in January to 155 at the end of March the result of the inventory increase has been to raise the months supply from 2.3 months to 4.3 months. The over 4,000 sq ft homes represent the major inventory problem, making up 39% of all listings and only 10% of the sold homes and having a 24 month supply.

Price changes in Carmel Valley have been quite different from San Diego County as a whole. Carmel Valley did not see the level of price drops seen countywide and Carmel Valley has not seen the high level of price increases seen countywide. For the first quarter detached homes have single digit year over year price increases while the higher end of the detached market has double digit price decreases and it is just the reverse for condos. Throughout San Diego we see double digit price increases across the board for all home sizes. 

Over the past year if you look at month to month price changes in Carmel Valley there has not been any real trend line up or down, the prices have been reasonably steady, except for the high end.

I do not see much change moving forward for Carmel Valley, with one caveat – inventory growth. Should the detached inventory continue to grow at recent rates then the pricing pressure downward will increase.