Sales in Carmel Valley are lagging the overall San Diego housing market performance versus last year sales. For the first quarter of 2009 detached home sales were down 12% and condo sales were down 30%, the overall San Diego market increased sales by over 50%. In April Carmel valley detached home sales were down and condo sales increased by 10% versus last April, the overall market for both types of homes increased by over 20%. Since most of the increased demand in the market is in the under $500,000 price range and since Carmel Valley’s prices are over the $500,000 range these declines were to be expected. However, April did have a positive gain in pending sales for detached homes. While only 26 homes sold, the pending sale increased to over 40 homes indicating a rebound in sales for next month. The inventory at the end of April was 215 detached and 92 for condos. The months supply for detached homes was 5 months and 4 months for condos. The months supply for detached homes ranges from 1 to 5 months depending on home size, except for the over 4000 sq ft range, indicating that prices should remain stable and maybe tick up a bit. The over 4000 sq ft range makes up 12% of the sold and 28% of the inventory indicating negative price pressure. Carmel Valley has not seen the magnitude of price drops experienced in most of San Diego County. Since August 2007 when the credit crunch hit, Carmel Valley has maintained inventories reasonably in balance with demand, running between 4 to 7 months supply, minimizing negative price pressures. In fact if you look at the 20 homes that sold in March only 2 sold for less than their previous sale and one broke even. Since a picture is worth 1000 words this chart shows the 5 year price trends by quarter. As long as Carmel Valley maintains the established inventory/demand profile prices will remain reasonable price stability, except for the higher end of the market which should see price declines. On a negative note, we are seeing increased foreclosure activity in notice of defaults and scheduled auctions. This will add more distress sales to the inventory and will have a negative price impact down the road. |