Carmel Valley detached home sales were down 4% from October 2008 but increased 38% from October 2007. Sales for October were down 27% from the average Carmel Valley detached home sales for the past 6 months. The October sales level reflects the low pending sale activity in September; however, October pending sale activity showed a marked 46% increase from September indicating that November will come back in line with the sales levels of the past 6 months. While San Diego County detached homes are showing a year to date sales increase of 17%, Carmel Valley YTD sales have decreased by 7%. Since Carmel valley is in the upper price ranges and the sales recovery this year has been in the lower price brackets the sales decline is not unexpected. While Carmel valley detached homes are suffering sales declines the condo market had a year over year sales increase of 14%, of course the price points on condos are much lower than on detached homes. Condo pending sales activity for October is very much in line with the sales indicating that November should maintain the current sales levels.

Both detached and condo inventories in Carmel Valley declined in October versus September. Combined with the increased pending activity both months supply numbers declined as well. In fact Carmel Valley condo months supply is below 1 months supply and detached declined to 3.5 months supply. Both detached and condo homes are in short supply based on the current demand. For the past 3 years detached new listings have decreased while listings that expired, canceled or withdrew increased having the effect of reducing the number of Carmel Valley homes for sale. The trend in E,C,W has seen a reduction as a percent of new listings and ytd is at 38%, down from 50% 3 years ago.

While prices have declined in Carmel Valley, the declines have been modest compared to San Diego County as a whole. The balance between supply and demand has helped Carmel Valley from the large price declines seen elsewhere in the county. Also, distress sales have been a very minor part of the overall Carmel Valley market virtually eliminating the negative distress price pressures. Looking at October sold homes versus the same home prior sale we see that the prices dropped only from 2005 to 2008. This is an improvement from just 3 months ago when we were seeing price declines from 2003 on, indicating some recent move up in prices. Carmel Valley prices during 2009 appear to be reasonably stable with some home sizes showing slight increases lately with the October average price showing an increase over September.

As long as Carmel Valley maintains the current supply/demand relationship the current price trends should continue moving forward. Only the homes over $1 million appear to be out of balance and should face negative price pressure until they come into balance.