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Carmel Valley Real Estate Inventory, Sales & Price Trends - July 2009
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Carmel Valley detached home sales were down 23% from July 2008 while condo sales were flat versus last year.  However, looking at detached sales from April 09 through July we see steadily increasing sales each month peaking in July with 41 homes sold. The pending off market activity for Carmel Valley detached homes in July had a 23% decrease versus the previous two months indicating that August sales will be lower. However, if the pending off market activity for the first two weeks of August continues through the month the sales activity will be back to pre-July levels. Based on condo pending off market activity August sales should be in the same range as July. The overall months supply for detached homes is 6 months and for condos the months supply is 2 months.  Based on detached home inventory and pending off market activity the detached home months supply should stay in the 6 month region in August. While the 6 month supply is at the high end of a price neutral market, the over $1 million homes have an 18 month supply indicating negative price pressures. While Carmel Valley prices have declined during the down housing market the area has not seen the severe prices drops seen in other areas of San Diego County.  Measuring the gain or loss from the previous sale for each of the 41 homes sold in July we found that 39% had prior sales from 2003 and earlier and the homes had an average price gain of 43% while the 61% that had prior sales from 2004 through 2008 had an average loss of 12%. Three of the homes on the 2004 to 2008 group did not have a loss but had a gain. This would seem to indicate that Carmel Valley prices are somewhere in the 2004 area. The April to July Carmel Valley detached market is showing price increases in July versus the previous 3 months, for homes less than 2500 sq ft or prices less than $900,000 the rest of the market segments show price declines.  Carmel Valley has weathered the bad housing market quite well over the past few years. There are some risks to this continued success, a change in the supply/demand relationship and the high end market. The price compression in the high end market could very well put negative price pressures on lower price brackets over time. |
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