Carmel Valley Inventory, Sales and Price Trends - August 2009

Carmel Valley detached sales were up about 3% from August last year but down 7% from July. This compares to an overall San Diego sales decline for detached homes of 20% from July. Carmel Valley condo sales increased 58% from August 2008 and condo sales increased 20% from July. While the buying activity – pending sales – for detached homes remained constant for July and August it is down 9% from the peak in May. At the same time Carmel Valley condo buying activity was the same for July and August but it increased from May.

For detached homes the combination of increased inventory – 6% from May – and decreased buying activity – down 9% from May – has resulted in an increase in months supply from 5 months to 6.4 months.  While the increased months supply still keeps Carmel Valley at the high end of being price neutral, if this continues as a trend it would indicate increasing negative price pressures. However, the months supply varies greatly by home size/price and the price problem area is in the larger more expensive homes. The increased buying activity for Carmel Valley condos has cause the months supply to decline from 2.5 months to 1.8 months, definitely seller advantage territory.

When looking at Carmel Valley prices, one has to be careful because of the small set of data point each month. While the absolute numbers may be a bit suspect the trends are clear. For detached homes the under $600,000 and the over $1 million had double digit price declines while the rest had single digit price declines from August 2008.  Looking at sales prices from April through August it would appear that prices are stable. Comparing August sales versus the previous sale for each home sold in August we see that homes with a previous sale earlier than 2003 sold for more than the August sale and homes with previous sales from 2003 until 2008 all sold for less than the previous sale – average price decline of 13%.